An analysis of each team’s total titles (Super Bowl wins and pre-1966 championships) vs expected titles. (Packers +7.2, Browns +4.4, Patriots +3.3…Cardinals -3.6)

The Process:

The Results:

Highlights:

  • The number one team in all-time championships, the Packers (13) is also number one on my list of over/under titles (+7.2). However, in most cases, you will not see the over/under rankings fall in line with total championship volume.
  • Any Browns fan who is age 57 or older should feel a little cheated when they look at this metric. The Browns have the 2nd highest Score with +4.4 championships, yet none of those titles came during their lives. The Browns won seven titles in the 40s and ’50s. By their 10th year in the league, they had already won seven with an expected number of 1 for an over/under of +6.
  • The Patriots and Bears have similar scores (Pats +3.3, Bears +3.2) but came about those scored in some very different ways with the Bears starting in 1920 and winning early, the Patriots starting in 1960 and ruining most people’s lives in the 2000s and 2010s. Another way to look at a team’s success relative to expected results is the percentage instead of the absolute difference (you’ll see this in the table below). The Patriots six titles vs an expected 2.7 are 124% better than expected. The Bears nine vs 5.8 expected is 54% better than the baseline.
  • The last three Super Bowl champions all pulled even or almost even with their expected totals from their most recent SB win. The Chiefs moved to +0.3 (3 actual, 2.7 expected), the Buccaneers moved to +0.5 (2 actual, 1.5 expected), and the Rams -0.4 (4 championships, 4.4 expected)
  • The Cardinals, one of the original teams (1920) have, by far, the worst championship history winning only two versus a league-high (tied) expected total of 5.8. Their -3.6 over/under is a full 1.5 worse than the 2nd worst team in the league, the Vikings.
  • Many teams would move from negative to positive by winning one more. A few good teams that have a reasonable chance soon are the Titans, Rams, and Bills.
  • Some teams who haven’t been in the league long enough to have a full 1.0 expected titles are the Texans (0.6), Ravens (0.8), Panthers (0.9), and Jaguars (0.9). Just one title in the next five years and the Jaguars, Texans, or Panthers are right where they should be.
  • The Bengals who just missed out on a Super Bowl win entered the league in 1968. Based on their 54 years, they should be at almost two titles. They came close to cutting the deficit in half this year. Hopefully, they are at the beginning of a run where they can continue their success and get a win or two with Burrow, Chase, and co.
  • The Eagles and Lions are tied for the 10th most championships in history with four each. However, because of their long timeline in the league and being the in league with fewer teams in their early years, they are ranked 25th and 26th in over/under against expected titles. Conversely, the Ravens with half as many titles (2) are 9th best all-time for over/under with a +1.2 because they came into the league in 1996 (I know…something, something, Browns).

--

--

--

Passionate about Analytics (Football, Sports, Marketing, Sales, Demographics) I’m a good analyst striving to be great; a novice writer trying to get better.

Love podcasts or audiobooks? Learn on the go with our new app.

Recommended from Medium

Cris Lencioni “Won a One-legged Ass Kickin’ Contest” at Bellator 239

Tennis Court Construction Costs in Lanescot | UK Specialists #Sports #Surface #Construction #Costs…

20th FutsalPlanet Awards — All you need to know!

Sharife Cooper: Not Large, but in Charge

The cat’s meow: The Ottawa Lynx

The Super Bowl Hangover: Fact or Fiction?

The Golf Industry is Coming Off Its Best Year Yet

The Raiders Will Win A Super Bowl Before Leaving Oakland

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store
Jason Pauley

Jason Pauley

Passionate about Analytics (Football, Sports, Marketing, Sales, Demographics) I’m a good analyst striving to be great; a novice writer trying to get better.

More from Medium

I Grew a Twitch Channel From 0 Followers to Twitch Affiliate In One Month - Week 3 Update

The most asked question of 2021 ‘How do I get Peace?’ Find out here!

The most asked question of 2021 ‘How do I get Peace?’ Find out here! 15th of June 2021/20, the way to get inner peace is a long one! The stresses of daily life hit us every time. Proven by scientists that peaceful music is the way to make your head lighter and become less stressful!

Norway, Mi Love — Bodo

7 ways to keep a check on your Mental Health