HOF Monitor Scores for WR: A table to identify finalists, snubs, players trending towards HOF status, etc. (WRs only in this post)
by Jason Pauley
Pro Football Reference has a metric called Hall of Fame Monitor which they created to predict players’ HOF eligibility (more on HOF monitor at the boom of this post). Like every metric, we can poke holes in it, but no metric is perfect. This can be a useful tool to determine directionally which players should be in the HOF, which players got snubbed, and who might be in the HOF when they become eligible. It condenses a player’s career into one number which makes comparisons much easier and adds some more spice to HOF debates.
Recently the HOF finalists were announced. Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt, and Andre Johnson were announced as finalists. Devin Hester is a finalist as well and falls under the WR category, however, he is a special case as his contributions are heavily based on special teams. (HOF Monitor doesn’t have a Special Teams category).
I exported the list and attempted to format it so we can easily identify players by status.
- Bold — HOF
- Yellow — 2022 Finalist
- Grey Font — Not Eligible
- Grey Shading — Eligible bot not in HOF
The things that jump out at me when I look at this list are Steve Smith. Was he snubbed? Panthers fans will think so, and this data suggests the answer might be yes. If the comments aren’t littered with angry Panthers fans, I’ll be disappointed. Maybe a few Anquan Boldinfans will have something to say as well.
What else stands out? Jerry Rice stands out. Good Lord…we know he is the GOAT, but look at how far ahead he is over the 2nd place player, Randy Moss. Jerry Rice is essentially two Randy Moss’s (or is it Moss’ or Mosses?), he is more than three Michael Irvin’s.
It’s always fun to look at HOFers and non-HOFers in close proximity in the rankings. Why Raymond Berry and not Del Shofner? Why Drew Pearson and not Henry Ellard?
It’s also interesting to see non-eligible players and their scores. We know Larry Fitzgerald is a future HOFer, and his score isn’t surprising. Julio Jones and Antonio Brown are quite high and still accumulating points as well. Tyreek Hill is an interesting one. He is only 27 years old and in his 6th season and he already ranks 58th, ahead of one current HOFer. In 6 seasons he has 6 Pro Bowls, 3 All-Pros, and he’s a Super Bowl champion…couldn’t happen to a better guy (sarcasm).
Here is the list which includes all HOFers and ends at the lowest-ranked 2022 finalist.
More on Pro Football References HOF Monitor:
The base formula uses weighted Approximate Value (which is 100% of the player’s peak year, 95% of their second-best year, 90% of their third-best, and so on) as a starting point. Bonuses are added for Pro Football Hall of Fame All-Decade selections, MVP awards, Defensive Player of the Year awards, first-team AP All-Pro selections, Super Bowls/titles, and Pro Bowls, in descending weights.
In addition, bonuses are added if a player has earned first-team All-Pro in over 33% of their seasons. This reflects the reputation boost afforded to players who led the league in short careers like Gale Sayers and Terrell Davis. For players not yet inducted, small bonuses are also added for semi-finalist and finalist appearances on previous HOF ballots, since that indicates that they’ve already been seriously considered.
On top of the base formula, there are statistical bonuses given depending on the position. For quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends there are different thresholds depending on the era they played in so as to narrow the gap between the depressed passing stats before 1980 and the explosion after that. For the full methodology, check out our PFR HOF Monitor explainer page here.
