My Ranking of the top draft pick and runners up for each team in the NFL (2009–2018)
by Jason Pauley
In another post, I wrote about my analysis of the draft as it relates to player performance over expected performance based on draft spot. Using my AV Share draft metric from the previous post, I’ve ranked each team’s best draft pick from 2009–2018. I left out the last two years because it’s probably too early to rank them, as their AV Share is likely to shift a bit. I won’t get into the details behind my metric on this post, but you can read all about it here*. The main point I want to make is that this is not a ranking of the best player, it’s the best draft pick relative to where the player was drafted, i.e. the player’s performance compared to the draft capital used on the player.
*Note that the original analysis was done before PFF made some minor updates to their AV calculations.
This is an AV-driven stat where I have normalized AV to the draft class and year that each player was drafted to allow for comparisons across years. (Player’s AV/sum of draft class AV minus avg AV/sum of draft class for the pick range where the player was drafted).
For some context on the AV Share Surplus metric: The range in the 10-year period is +2.29 pts to -1.06 pts. The median is -0.10 pts (avg is 0.00). Out of 3,055 picks, there are 63 players over +1.00. The 95th percentile is +0.74 pts. The 90th percentile is +0.50 pts. The 75% percentile is +0.16 pts.
I plan to continue to post each division over the coming weeks.
Here are the top picks and runners up for each team:
NFC West:
Cardinals
CB Patrick Peterson; Drafted 5th overall in 2011
AV Share Surplus +0.94 pts
It’s rare that a player drafted in the top 5 still outperforms their draft spot enough to be a team’s best value pick, but Peterson’s 3 All-Pros, 8 Pro Bowls and 10 seasons as a starter was still enough to end up as the best AZ pick in the last ten years.
Runners up: D.Johnson drafted 86th and T.Mathieu drafted 69th
Rams
DT Aaron Donald; Drafted 13th overall in 2014
AV Share Surplus +1.46 pts (99.6th percentile)
Donald is another player drafted high but still the best value pick for a team. He is the 2nd best DT pick (per AV Share — eAV Share) in the NFL in the last 10 years, not because he’s the 2nd best DT (he isn’t, he’s the best), but because G.Atkins was drafted so low at 120th, Atkins edges out Donald relative to expected AV for the draft spot.
Runners up: C.Kupp drafted 69th and T.Gurley drafted 10th
49ers
LB NaVorro Bowman; Drafted in the 3rd round, 91st overall in 2010
AV Share Surplus +1.21 pts
Bowmans 4 All-Pros is more than the other 99 players in his draft range (pick 91–100) combined.
Runners up: G.Kittle drafted 146th and F.Warner drafted 70th
Seahawks
QB Russell Wilson; Drafted in the 3rd round, 75th overall in 2012
AV Share Surplus +2.29 points
Russell Wilson comes up as the best pick in the NFL in the 10 year period (R.Sherman is the runner up for Seattle, but also for the NFL). Other QB’s selected in Wilson’s pick range (71–80) are M.Glennon, M.Rudolph, R.Mallett and G.Grayson
Runners up: R.Sherman drafted 154th and B.Wagner drafted 47th
Note: AV is Approximate Value created by Pro Football Reference, you can click here for a lot of detail on this stat.
