Ranking QBs using my QB CAPS system

Jason Pauley

The 2004 draft gave us three very good, or great quarterbacks, depending on who you ask and what their criteria are. Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning will often be compared to each other because they came out of the same draft, and all are arguably HOFers…some are also arguably not HOFers. The debates are heated, and differing opinions are based on what an individual considers most important. Playoff success, Longevity and counting stats, peak seasons, or awards and recognition are all factors with varying importance depending on an individual’s point of view.

My goal with the QB CAPS score (Career, Awards, Playoffs, Seasons) is to assign point values that address the four major categories mentioned above in order to attempt a comprehensive score. Everything about this score is arbitrary and my point values can be questioned and debated, but I tried to create points and categories that made sense to me (i.e. 20 points for MVP, 20 points for SB win…I consider these equal in terms of ranking a QB; an All-Pro is 2X a Pro Bowl, etc). I’m not married to this scoring system, so adjustments might come later. It was also important to take my own biases out while coming up with these rankings and avoid tweaking scores to move guys up or down (I wanted Eli higher on this list, I also thought Romo was too low based on my personal admiration for the QB). This is likely one of many QB ranking systems out there done by the pros and hobbyists like me. They all have strengths and weaknesses but what I do like about this one is the ability to see the profile of a player’s score based on the 4 main categories. It provides a final score but allows the debate to continue given the transparency of the categorical rankings.

I wanted to try this score for the three big QBs from that 2004 draft since they often get compared to each other. Then for fun, I threw in two of my favorite QBs who I believe are underappreciated (K.Anderson, T.Romo) to see how they stack up against this group.

Here are the rankings: The size of the circle represents their total score. The doughnut chart shows the percentage of their score came from each of the 4 categories, and the bar chart shows their total point value from each category.

Some interesting findings.

• Nearly 50% of Manning and Roethlisberger’s score came from the Playoff category
• Rivers and Romo were the most balanced with a relatively equal distribution across the four categories
• Ken Anderson had the highest Season Score lifted by ending up 1st in the NFL in Rating, ANY/A, and Yards eight times in his career. He also dominated season after season in one of my tier two metrics, Completion Percentage. Also, as a result of his MVP, ROY, and Comeback Player of the Year awards, Anderson has the highest Award score.
• The 4% of Eli’s score from Season success really highlights the fact that his greatness (or goodness) really hinges on playoffs and longevity over peak season success vs his peers.
• P.Rivers has the highest Career score and the highest percentage of his score (29%) from Career points driven by being in the top 5 all-time in passing yards and passing touchdowns.

My extremely arbitrary, but hopefully fair scoring system:

Scores are based on 4 categories:

1. A players career ranking (rewarding longevity and volume for counting stats as well as efficiency
2. Season rankings in key stats, rewarding peak seasons among peers
3. Playoff success
4. Points for recognition such as Pro Bowls, All-Pro, MVP, etc.

Career points for tier 1 stats: 6 pts for top 20, 12 points for top 10, 20 points for top 5, 30 points for #1 rank

Career points for tier 2 stats: 3 pts for top 20, 6 points for top 10, 10 points for top 5, 15 points for #1 rank

Season points for tier 1 stats: 2 pts for each season in top 3, 3 points for #1 rank

Season points for tier 2 stats: 1 pts for each season in top 3, 2 points for #1 rank

Playoff points: 5 points for making the playoffs, 10 points for Super Bowl runner-up, 20 points for Super Bowl winner

Awards/Recognition points: 5 points for Pro Bowl, 10 points for All-Pro, 20 points for MVP, 10 points for ROY, Man of Year, Comeback

Career and Season categories: Tier 1 stats (Passer Rating*, ANY/A*, Yards, TDs); Tier 2 stats (Completion %*, TD %*, Int %*, Sack %*, Total Offense) *Career efficiency stats are normalized to era using pro football reference INDEX stats (ANY/A INEX, Passer Rating INDEX, etc.)