The NFL Top 100 compared to the players’ 2023 PFF ratings

Jason Pauley

I graphed the NFL Top 100 against their 2023 PFF grade. It’s interesting to see where PFF grades and player selections differ dramatically. As expected, despite outliers and some variability, higher ranked players generally have better PFF grades, and the bottom of the list have lower grades. Tyreek Hill who was ranked ‘#1 by players had the second highest grade. Myles Garrett ranked 5th in the poll had the 2nd highest grade last year.

Positional value isn’t a factor in PFF grades, and we don’t know which players concerned themselves with positional value when they made their selections. Hopefully this chart will add some more insight, discussion and controversy to the conversation.

At the risk of knowing enough to be dangerous, but not enough to apply the right statistical methodology, I looked the correlation between ranking and PFF grade. The R-squared is .426

I used the formula from the trend-line to predict what PFF Grade should be associated with each rank from 1–100 to find which players were most overrated or underrated by players relative to PFF grade (overrated and underrated might not be the best term as it assumes PFF as the baseline and the single source of truth, which is arguably not the case)

Here are the 5 players with the biggest negative gap between player rank and PFF grade (players overrated in poll relative to PFF grade)

1. Jonathan Allen, DL, Commanders
2. Jalen Ramsey, CB, Dolphins
3. Derwin James, S, Chargers
4. Zack Martin, OG, Cowboys
5. Justin Simmons, S, Broncos

Here are the 5 players with the biggest positive gap between player rank and PFF grade (players underrated in poll relative to PFF grade) — three Falcons!

1. Jessie Bates III, S, Falcons
2. Chris Lindstrom, OG, Falcons
3. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
4. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins
5. Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons

There are probably other players even more underrated who never showed up on the list at all, but this analysis is only focused on the top 100.

I hope you find this interesting. I’m hoping to take a deeper look at positions when I have the time.