Tracking individual NFL record chases through infographics (week 11)

by Jason Pauley

With the NFL adding one more game and moving to a 17-game season, we are likely to start seeing some long-held single-season NFL records fall over the next few years. With 6.3% more games to pile on stats, the odds have increased significantly that we will see some records fall. Adding games isn’t new: In 1961 the NFL went from 12 games to 14 games. In 1978 they moved from 14 games to 16 games, and this year, 17 games. Despite the changes in the number of games played, the NFL, and most sports, do not segment records by season length. There is only one single-season record. Personally, I have the unpopular opinion that records should be per game (with a minimum games played requirement to qualify), but that’s not where we are. That being said, fair or not, some records will be broken as a result of the 17th game, just like they were from the addition of the 16th game and the 14th game before that. Now that the caveats are out of the way, I created some infographics to track some of the players who are on pace to break or come close to breaking some single-season records.

The records I’m tracking are:

• Passing Yards set by Peyton Manning with 5,477 in 2013
• Receiving Yards set by Calvin Johnson with 1,964 yards in 2012.
• Sacks set by Michael Strahan with 22.5 in 2001. The unofficial record is set by Al Baker with 23.0 in 1978 (sacks were recognized by the NFL starting in 1982).
• Defensive Interceptions set Dick “Night Train” Lane with 14 in 1952 (12-game season)

Here is the status for a few players through week 11 of the season. At this point in the season, one bad game could take them out of the running. For some of these stats like passing yards and receiving yards, the weather will begin to pose a challenge as we move into winter. Additionally, a team that has already clinched their playoff position with no chance of moving up, might sit a star player in the final week of the season (The Buccaneers and Tom Brady for example).

T.J. Watt’s march to the single-season sack record

T.J. Watt is on a pace for 23.5 sacks. The record is set by Michael Strahan with 22.5 in 2001. The unofficial record is set by Al Baker with 23.0 in 1978 (sacks were recognized by the NFL starting in 1982). Watt’s per-game production can decrease by 4% and he will still be on pace for the record. The Steelers’ remaining schedule is favorable for Watt with the Steelers’ average opponent allowing 18% more sacks per game (2.6) than league average (2.2). He has a couple of tough opponents for sack production (MIN and KC), but if he falls behind on his pace keep an eye on weeks 17 and 18 where he might feast on Cleveland (6th most sacks given up per game) and Baltimore (2nd most sacks given up per game) to finish the season strong. T.J. Watt has missed two games due to injury, so if he breaks the record, assuming no more injuries, he will have broken it by playing in only 15 of the 17 games this season.

Cooper Kupp’s march to the single-season receiving yards record

Cooper Kupp is on a pace of 1,940 receiving yards. The record is set by Calvin Johnson with 1,964 yards in 2012. Kupp needs to increase his per-game average by 3.5% for the rest of the year. The Rams’ remaining schedule is somewhat favorable for Kupp with the Rams’ average opponent allowing 19 passing/receiving yards above league average per game.

Myles Garrett’s march to the single-season sack record

Myles Garrett is on a pace for 20.0 sacks. Garrett is likely going to need another big multi-sack game as he had in week three against Chicago; his per-game production will need to increase from 1.2 per game (through 11 games) to 1.7 per game for the remaining six games. The Browns’ remaining schedule is favorable for Garrett with the Browns’ average opponent allowing 23% more sacks per game (2.7) than league average (2.2).

Tom Brady’s march to the single-season passing yards record

Tom Brady is on a pace of 5,401 yards. The record is set by Peyton Manning with 5,477 in 2013. His average opponent for the remainder of the year is giving up 240 passing yards per game, the same as the league average. He has some very favorable matchups like the Jets (last in the league in pass defense) and the Saints (22nd in the league in pass defense), as well as some difficult ones such as the Panthers twice (#1 in the league in pass defense) and the Bills (2nd in the league in pass defense). The biggest issue might be Brady sitting in week 17 if the Buccaneers don’t have anything to play for.

Trevon Diggs’ march to the single-season passing yards record

After his interception-less Thanksgiving, the record has become an unlikely accomplishment for Trevon Diggs. After a hot start to the year, he now has only one interception in his last five games. Trevon Diggs is on a pace for 12.4 interceptions. The record is set by Dick “Night Train” Lane with 14 in 1952 (12 game season). His per-game production will need to increase by 38% for the remainder of the year if he is going to tie the record. He has averaged 0.74 picks per game through 11 games, but he will need to average 1.0 per game for the final six games of the season. None of his remaining opponents are particularly interception-friendly offenses to play against, with Washington and the Giants the only teams on his schedule with above average picks per game, but only slightly (0.90 per game).

This data is through week 11 of the NFL season as of 11/26/21. Thanksgiving game (week 12) is included for Trevon Diggs.

The source for all the data is pro football reference